“Planned vs. Impulse: Discount Format”
With Iman Ahmadi, Nick Lee, and John Rudd. Job Market Paper. Full text available upon request.
Drawing on longitudinal transaction data from a large food-delivery platform, this paper examines how planned versus immediate discounts shape consumer purchasing behaviour. It focuses on how discount timing interacts with consumers’ tendencies to explore new restaurants, and how these differences relate to spending, restaurant choice, and responses to promotions.
“Beyond Single LLMs: Using Model Ensembles to Improve Synthetic Data in Marketing Experiments”
With Mohammad Sheikhian Kazerooni, Marco Gregori, and Iman Ahmadi. Working Paper.
Using four LLM families (ChatGPT, Gemini, DeepSeek, Grok) across six published marketing experiments, we develop a framework that improves LLM-human correlations from r ≈ 0.08 to r ≈ 0.40 via multi-model ensembling, covariate recalibration, and response-style adjustment integrated through Recalibrated Prediction-Powered Inference (RePPI). The pipeline reduces standard errors by approximately 16% on average, corresponding to an effective labeled-sample-size increase of roughly 24%.
“Decomposing Promotional Timing: When Discounts Are Given, When Rewards Arrive, and Why the Difference Matters”
Sedigheh Monavari, Iman Ahmadi, Nick Lee, and John Rudd. Working Paper, 2026.
A meta-analysis of effect sizes from academic papers (2017–2026) decomposing promotional timing into signalling (immediate vs. planned) and reward delivery (instant vs. delayed). Instant rewards significantly outperform delayed ones; however, this disadvantage is nearly eliminated when consumers receive advance notice, enabling anticipatory mental accounting.
“Revealed Competition and Promotional Spillovers in a Marketplace”
Sedigheh Monavari, Iman Ahmadi, Nick Lee, and John Rudd. Work in Progress, 2026.
When a seller funds a discount on an online marketplace, whose demand does it take? Using transaction-level data from a food delivery platform, I build a competitor network from shared pre-period customers and estimate how seller-funded coupons affect rival sellers. Geographic definitions of competition show no rival losses, but revealed competition does: losses concentrate on a narrow set of rivals that share customers with the promoting seller, and are steepest among those selling the same type of food. How competitors are measured determines whether promotional spillovers are visible at all.
“Consumer Responses to Digital Nudges on a Health Platform”
With Iman Ahmadi, Nick Lee, and John Rudd.
Examines how different types of digital nudges influence consumer engagement and behaviour on a digital health platform, exploring variation in responses across users and intervention types.
“Screening Manipulations with Silicon Samples: Bayesian Programme-Level Inference with LLM-Generated Responses”
With Marco Gregori.
Develops a Bayesian approach to using LLM-generated responses alongside evidence from related experiments to help assess new research manipulations.
“Polling with AI: Can LLM Surrogates Supplement Probabilistic Sampling for Voting-Intention Research?”
With Mohammad Sheikhian Kazerooni, Marco Gregori, and Iman Ahmadi.
Evaluates whether LLM predictions can supplement a small human survey (N ≈ 1,200 Scottish residents via Prolific) to produce valid constituency-level estimates of voting intention for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, combining human and synthetic responses through Prediction-Powered Inference.